Dr. Morris Mottale

In the last few weeks, following the official visit of the speaker of the house of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, the Communist Chinese government denounced the United States along with Nancy Pelosi because it weakened the idea of the one China policy that has been accepted by the majority of independent countries including the Unites States. Taiwan is considered by Beijing a province of greater China and its government is not currently recognized as legitimate by China. The government in Taiwan is the inheritor of the pre-communist government in Beijing led by Chiang Kai-Shek, who led China against the Japanese invaders in the 1930s. Later on, the Chinese civil war saw Chiang Kai-Shek being defeated by Mao and saw Chiang Kai-Shek flee to Taiwan where he set up an alternative Government that represented China at the UN. By 1971, the United States began the process of recognizing Beijing as the legitimate representative of the Chinese people and Taiwan was cast out and was barely officially recognized by the international community as a sovereign state.

The present government in Beijing is led by Xi Jinping who is the leader of the Communist party and is committed to the reunification of China, while also attempting to expand Chinese power all over the world. The continuing and expanding antagonism between Beijing and Washington has now been compounded by the war in Ukraine and Beijing’s political support for Moscow. Even before the invasion of Ukraine, Washington had begun a process of confrontation with China under the Trump administration, a policy that has now been followed by the Biden administration. Trade conflicts and Chinese espionage activities that see Beijing stealing technology and scientific data from the United States along with other Western countries are now one of the primary sources of United States and European suspicions of China. The present energy war with Russia and the attempt to boycott and sanction the Russian economy has seen Beijing getting closer to Moscow as China has become the main buyer of Russian oil. This paradoxically undermines Washington’s and Europe’s attempts to help Ukraine. Beijing’s constant reference to Chinese reunification and the possibility of an invasion of Taiwan by the PLA (Peoples Liberation Army) is now being considered as a possibility by military specialists and political observers.

The war in Ukraine has seen the focus of American and European diplomacy and military policies to focus on containing and punishing Putin’s Russia. The current energy crisis in Europe and inflation due to the high prices of energy has posed a great challenge to North American, EU, and British leaders. The possibility of Beijing invading Taiwan and adding to the crises already plaguing the international system such as the confrontation between the United States and North Korea, conflicts in North Africa and the Middle East, the collapse of the United States border with Mexico, Covid-19, and climate change compound a pessimistic mood by the masses toward people in leadership in Europe and North America.

The question that should be asked is whether Beijing can conquer Taiwan without threatening a World War between China and the United States as Washington has made several statements about the protection of Taiwan against a Chinese military invasion. The US has been confronting Beijing’s claims on Taiwan with a policy of strategic ambiguity and an escalating tactical military confrontation. An alternative view can be put forward to challenge the perspective of Beijing’s ability to conquer Taiwan without encouraging serious military, economic, and political losses. In the 1950s, Communist China since 1949 had been bombarding the Kinmen islands in the Straits of Taiwan controlled by Nationalists. But, the Communists were never able to orchestrate a full invasion of the Kinmen Islands and Taiwan itself. This was and is due to the fear of the United States and the tactical advantages of the Nationalist armies of Taiwan. Communist Beijing had been at war with the United States in Korea in the second part of the 20th Century, with the nationalist government of China in the straits of Taiwan in the 50s, and at war with India in 1961. Then in a conflict with the Soviet Union in the far East in 1969, and after the American withdrawal from Vietnam, Beijing began a war with communist Hanoi where the Chinese armies were soundly trashed. Currently, Beijing is involved in territorial maritime disputes with Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Japan along with a land dispute with India that has seen clashes since 1961. It is often forgotten that India is a military ally of Moscow which has been historically providing the bulk of its armaments against China. Any invasion of Taiwan by the Communist Chinese Armies is not an easy task, Beijing has to consider the possibility of confrontations with some of its neighbors while invading Taiwan and confronting US power at the same time. Thus Taiwan holds some advantages against Beijing’s military threats that seem to be overlooked.

Historically and arguably in the 20th Century, China has not been militarily successful in achieving its political goals but rather has been constrained by the power of the United Sates, Russia, India and Vietnam. It is likely that this trend will continue with the virtual alliance of Japan, Australia, and India that the United States and the UK have been promoting. Hopefully, the leadership in all of these countries will be able to deescalate these rising confrontations.